The Australian: No hope for climate talks, says Britain's chief scientist John Beddington
Jonathan Leake and Ben Webster
BRITAIN'S chief scientist has dismissed hopes for a deal at the UN climate change conference starting today in Cancun, Mexico.
And, says John Beddington, people should start preparing for a warmer world.
Beddington told The Sunday Times there was "very little chance of reaching a comprehensive agreement in Cancun" and it was unwise to think the UN would achieve its target of limiting global temperature rises to 2C.
"We have to focus on adaptation to climate change," he said. "It would be very unwise to think that the 2C goal will happen."
Sir John warned that Britain and Europe could not continue to take action on emissions alone without putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage.
But a former UN climate chief believes a "coalition of the willing" among the major economies can break the deadlock.
Yvo de Boer told The Times that countries willing to cut emissions should not wait for the US to act but join forces with like-minded nations, and said Europe and China were already discussing linking their emissions trading schemes.
"There is no need for us to sit and wait until the very last person has agreed. Groups of countries coming together and beginning to act is a fantastic way of moving the process forward," he said.
The Dutchman, who resigned in July as executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said the US had fallen behind China in enacting its pledge on emissions. "China is further in actually translating its commitment into national policy," he said.
Climate scientists say the world has already warmed by about 0.7C since pre-industrial times. The Cancun talks, which will last for two weeks with an estimated 10,000 participants, are aimed at achieving an agreement that will limit further rises to no more than 1.3C.
That would mean reducing annual carbon dioxide emissions to the equivalent of 22 billion tonnes by 2050 -- compared with 56 billion tonnes emitted now.
Michael Grubb, a member of the British government's advisory body on emissions, endorsed the idea of a coalition. "In carbon terms, this would be a coalition of the progressive world. In addition to Europe, we would need China or India plus Brazil or South Africa and either South Korea or Japan," he said.
"There has to be some glue to hold the coalition together. The glue would have to involve some form of co-operation on carbon pricing, trade and financial measures."
Sir John stressed the wider global context. "It's not just climate change," he said. "There is also a demographic boom, with world population rising by 70 million a year. We have got major issues with food security interacting with climate change.
"Extreme weather events, such as the fires in Russia and floods in Pakistan, could become more frequent. And we have rising and more wealthy populations. All these things are interrelated and you ignore any of them at your peril."
